What’s the impact of cooling economy on multifamily rent growth?

National occupancy rates hovered at 96% for the third consecutive month, a solid performance led by gateway or coastal metros. The markets that saw the largest increases in occupancy rates were San Jose (1.7%), New York (1%), Chicago (1%) and San Francisco (1%).

“Occupancy rates nationally remain firm but are declining in some high-growth metros, owing to the robust number of new deliveries and a slowdown in net migration,” Yardi analysts said. “Absorption was especially strong in San Jose, where the occupancy rate increased to 96.7% while new deliveries over the last year added 3.2% to stock. Apartment demand in the metro is benefiting from a return of young workers to offices and high single-family home prices that put homeownership out of reach for many.”

The average single-family unit asking rent jumped by $7 in July to $2,092, while year-over-year growth fell by 60 basis points to 11.2%.

“The moderating rent growth may be a product of an inevitable return to the mean, coincidental to the suddenly slowing economy, or some combination of the two,” the report stated. “Record rent growth in 2021 was driven by record-high absorption of 580,000 units in 2021, per Yardi Matrix. Absorption has ‘slowed’ to roughly half that pace in 2022, more in line with a normal healthy year.