US pending home sales suffer fifth straight month of decline

Read more: Housing market cooling down

According to Yun’s projections, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will likely hit 5.3% by the fourth quarter before reaching 5.4% by 2023. He expects inflation to average 8.2% in 2022 but start moderating to 5.5% in the second half of this year. Unemployment rates will average 3.7%, Yun estimated, and GDP growth to accelerate by 2.8%.

As of March, higher mortgage rates and persistent price growth have driven an annual increase of 31% in mortgage payments.

“Overall existing-home sales this year look to be down 9% from the heated pace of last year,” Yun said. “Home prices are in no danger of decline on a nationwide basis, but the price gains will steadily decelerate such that the median home price in 2022 will likely be up 8% from last year.”

Costs have also pushed monthly rental payments up. Yun predicts this will lead to more renters exploring homeownership.