US job growth slows in October

With the key benchmark 10-year Treasury yield slipping below its recent high of 5%, Yun highlighted the fact that mortgage rates will now likely tick downwards, with the 30-year fixed rate likely to drop to around 6% by spring of 2024.

Outlook for housing

Construction hiring rose for the seventh month in a row, with the sector having added 148,000 jobs to date in 2023. Kan said still-low pre-owned housing inventory had pushed prospective buyers to new homes, “increasing the need for workers, while owners staying in their current homes continue to invest in home improvement projects and repairs.”

The addition of almost 14,000 jobs in residential construction in October, Duncan said, indicated “another robust month of employment growth, further helping to alleviate supply constraints present in this sector.”

The likelihood of a fall in mortgage rates, according to Yun, pointed to a possible upswing for the national housing market.

“If the spread between Treasury and mortgage were to move from the current abnormal high to just the historical average, the mortgage rates today would already be in the 6.2% to 6.7% range,” he said. “Be ready for more home buyers and more home sellers.”