Mortgage and refinance rates today, Dec. 14, 2022

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Average mortgage rates fell appreciably yesterday. And they begin this morning a tiny bit lower than they were at the start of this month.

Mortgage rates today could go either way, perhaps sharply. Everything depends on Federal Reserve events this afternoon, which could have an enormous impact on those rates. Details below.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

I’m concerned by the possible effects this afternoon’s Federal Reserve events could have on mortgage rates.

So, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term must for now remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes nudged up to 3.50% from 3.45%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) However, those yields were rising this morning. More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were modestly higher soon after opening. (Sometimes bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices climbed to $76.87 from $74.60 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices decreased to $1,823 from $1,830 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 68 from 63 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. In any event, mortgage rates today are unpredictable. That’s because events this afternoon are likely to determine how they move.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Today

Yesterday’s better-than-expected inflation data make it very likely that the Federal Reserve will this afternoon announce a 50-basis-point (0.5%) hike in its interest rate. If that’s what happens, at 2 p.m. (ET), it probably won’t affect mortgage rates at all. Because everyone’s been expecting it for ages and it was priced into those rates weeks ago.

SEPtic?

The big risk this afternoon is the report that the Fed will publish at the same time it announces that rate hike. The report will include a Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which lays out where the people who set rates expect them to be at different times in the future.

Many fear that markets are expecting much better news than is likely to appear. Investors seem to think that a couple of months of encouraging inflation figures will make the Fed moderate further its future rate hikes and begin to cut rates earlier than planned.

If this afternoon’s SEP pours cold water on those expectations, as I expect, that could cause mortgage rates to rise, perhaps sharply. To me, this is the most likely scenario for today. However, it’s not the only one.

How you decide what to do

It remains possible, though less likely to me, that the Fed will bend to the will of markets by meeting investors’ expectations. And that could bring more — and more appreciable — falls in mortgage rates.

A third option is something in between: some concessions to markets but the retention by the Fed of much of its rate hiking plan. That may bring more limited movements in mortgage rates.

We’ll see which scenario emerges soon enough. If you share my analysis, you might want to lock your mortgage rate this morning to avoid rises this afternoon. But you then risk the Fed being more amenable than I expect and thus your missing out on further rate falls.

Thirty minutes after this afternoon’s publication, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host a news conference. What he says then might also move mortgage rates.

Personally, I would lock my rate this morning. But that’s just one person’s opinion. And you must make your decision, based on your own assessment of the probabilities and your own tolerance for risk.

For more background, please read the latest weekend edition of this report.

Recent trends

According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.

Freddie’s Dec. 8 report put that same weekly average at 6.33%, down from the previous week’s 6.49%.

Recently, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also moved later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. And, from now on, we’ll be updating this section on Fridays.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q4/22) and the first three quarters of next year (Q1/23, Q2/23 and Q3/24).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s forecast appeared on Nov. 22, the MBA’s on Nov. 23 and Freddie’s on Oct. 21. Freddie now publishes its forecasts quarterly and its figures can quickly become stale.

Forecaster	Q4/22	Q1/23	Q2/23	Q3/23
Fannie Mae	7.0%	7.0%	6.9%	6.7%
Freddie Mac	6.8%	6.6%	6.5%	6.4%
MBA	6.7%	6.2%	5.6%	5.4%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.