Lock volume plummets amid record-low affordability

Scott Happ, president of Optimal Blue, said September’s results provide a glimpse of what to expect for the remainder of 2022 and beyond.

“Interest rate and affordability challenges have fundamentally changed the mortgage origination market,” Happ said. “Interest rates are now at their highest level in 15 years, while affordability is at 37-year lows. Given these realities, it’s not particularly surprising that rate locks are falling sharply.”

The resilience that cash-out locks once showed amid rising interest rates also started to budge, dropping 26.2% from August and 78% from 2021. However, it still makes up for almost three-quarters of total refinance activity.

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Rate/term refinance activity remained unchanged for the most part at -0.1%, while purchase lending still makes up most of the September activity in spite of the 7.6% fall from August.