Mortgage and refinance rates today, June 21, 2022

Today’s mortgage and refinance rates

Markets were closed yesterday for the Juneteeth federal holiday. Average mortgage rates inched lower last Friday, though only by a similar tiny amount to Thursday’s rise. And last week ended with those rates significantly higher than they started it. Indeed, those for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages remained above 6% all week.

Unfortunately, judging from market movements earlier this morning, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. But that could change as the day progresses.

Current mortgage and refinance rates

Should you lock a mortgage rate today?

Don’t lock on a day when mortgage rates look set to fall. My recommendations (below) are intended to give longer-term suggestions about the overall direction of those rates. So, they don’t change daily to reflect fleeting sentiments in volatile markets.

Mortgage rates often bounce back after a sharp movement. But hopes of a rebound this time around are fading after two days when they barely moved. Of course, that doesn’t mean there definitely won’t be one. But the chances are dropping fast.

And, even if one materializes, I doubt it will take mortgage rates much lower or last long. Indeed, as long as inflation continues to run hot, I’m expecting those rates to stay high and perhaps inch higher. However, relatively brief periods of falls are a feature of all rising markets.

Anyway, my personal rate lock recommendations for the longer term remain:

• LOCK if closing in 7 days
• LOCK if closing in 15 days
• LOCK if closing in 30 days
• LOCK if closing in 45 days
• LOCK if closing in 60 days

>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate

Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates

Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time last Thursday, were:

• The yield on 10-year Treasury notes rose to 3.28% from 3.26%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates normally tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
• Major stock indexes were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors are buying shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes prices of those down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
• Oil prices fell to $111.87 from $114.51 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
• Gold prices dropped to $1,836 from $1,846 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy. And worried investors tend to push rates lower
• CNN Business Fear & Greed index — rose to 20 from 16 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are better than higher ones

*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats about markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.

So use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to rise. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change direction during the day) are a common feature right now.

Important notes on today’s mortgage rates

Here are some things you need to know:

1. Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
2. Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
4. When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
5. Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.

A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinance rates rising or falling?

Last week, the National Association of Realtors® ran an interesting article on one of its websites. It asked how high mortgage rates could go.

On the one hand, I liked it because its analysis was close to mine. On the other, I was disappointed because I’d hoped to read something that might make my outlook for mortgage rates less gloomy.

Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale agreed with me (and pretty much everyone else) that those rates depend on inflation. And, in a statement last Thursday, Freddie Mac concurred: “These higher rates are the result of a shift in expectations about inflation and the course of monetary policy.”

So, if the Federal Reserve manages to tame inflation quickly, the pain of sharply rising rates should go away. But, if Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, I wouldn’t expect inflation to fall for many months, perhaps sometime in 2023.

And, even then, that doesn’t necessarily mean mortgage rates will fall, at least for long. Indeed, the Realtor.com article ended with a chilling prediction from mortgage banker James Lowen of Raleigh, NC:

It’s only going to get worse because the odds of rates decreasing are pretty slim.

James Lowen, Texana Bank, quoted on Realtor.com

Is everyone wrong?

My all-time favorite quote came from the late Harvard economist John Kenneth Galbraith. He wrote: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

And, of course, he was right. Economists are as notorious for rarely spotting looming recessions as they are for buying theories that decades later turn out to be nonsense.

But this is different. We’re watching mortgage rates in real-time with our own eyes. And we’re applying proven, real-world experience to what we’re witnessing.

True, we can’t get short-term predictions right every time because external factors sometimes intrude. And it’s always possible that some huge global event (a new, more deadly, more vaccine-resistant COVID-19 variant; a war with the US against Russia or China; a world-changing natural disaster …) could come along that sends mortgage rates plunging again.

But how likely is that compared to what we’re seeing now? For those deciding when to lock their mortgage rates, we’re passed clutching at straws, I’d suggest.

Read the weekend edition of this daily article for more background.

Recent trends

Over much of 2020, the overall trend for mortgage rates was clearly downward. And a new, weekly all-time low was set on 16 occasions that year, according to Freddie Mac.

The most recent weekly record low occurred on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

Rates then bumbled along, moving little for the following eight or nine months. But they began rising noticeably that September. Unfortunately, they’ve been mostly shooting up since the start of 2022, although May was a kinder month.

Freddie’s June 16 report puts that same weekly average for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages at 5.78% (with 0.9 fees and points), up from the previous week’s 5.23%. That will have missed a sharp and moderate rise earlier that week, as well as Wednesday’s fall.

Note that Freddie expects you to buy discount points (“with 0.9 fees and points”) on closing that earn you a lower rate. If you don’t do that, your rate would be closer to the ones we and others quote.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining three quarters of 2022 (Q2/22, Q3/22, Q4/22) and the first quarter of next year (Q1/23).

The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were published on Jun. 16, and the MBA’s on Jun. 10. Freddie’s were released on Apr. 18. But it now updates its figures only quarterly, so they’re already looking stale.

Forecaster	Q2/22	Q3/22	Q4/22	Q1/23
Fannie Mae	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%	5.0%
Freddie Mac	4.8%	4.8%	5.0%	5.0%
MBA	5.1%	5.1%	5.0%	5.0%

Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. Recent events certainly make them look that way.

Find your lowest rate today

You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. As federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau says:

“Shopping around for your mortgage has the potential to lead to real savings. It may not sound like much, but saving even a quarter of a point in interest on your mortgage saves you thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.”

Mortgage rate methodology

The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.